Quantum Threats and the Future of Cyber Defense
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20570592Keywords:
Quantum Cryptographic Threats, Quantum-Resilient Cryptography, Quantum Eavesdropping Techniques, Quantum Computing Capabilities, Shor’s Algorithm, Grover’s Algorithm, Post-Quantum Cryptography, Lattice-Based Cryptography, Multivariate Quadratic Cryptography, Code-Based Cryptography, Hash-Based Cryptography, Cryptographic Vulnerabilities, Quantum Cyber Deterrence, Strategic Stability, Cyber Resilience, Risk Management Frameworks, Capability Hardening, Offensive Cyber Thresholds, Cyber Governance And Regulation, Ethical And Legal Considerations.Abstract
Quantum threats to classical and quantum-resilient cryptography and deterrence mechanisms for cyber warfare underpinnings are investigated. The fundamental principles of quantum eavesdropping techniques, quantum computing, and cryptanalytic algorithms, including Shor's and Grover's algorithms, are outlined. The most widely examined post-quantum cryptography primitives—lattice-based, multivariate-quadratic-equations-based, code-based, and hash-based solutions—are compared in terms of their respective capabilities and inherent vulnerabilities. Quantum cyber deterrence concepts—strategic stability, defensive postures, resilience, risk management, capability hardening, and offensive thresholds—are examined. The potential for deterrent or coercive application of quantum computing in digital warfare is analyzed, with an emphasis on ethical, legal, and strategic considerations.
The development of internationally accepted certification procedures and compliance frameworks is essential to effectively manage the post-quantum digital transition, providing a foundation for effective risk management and enable the emergence of governance, regulatory, and normative frameworks for responsible and stable cyber operations. The establishment of strategic, cooperative, and operational confidence-building measures, as well as the generation of deterrent cyber-resilience capabilities, is crucial to enabling stable deterrence in digital space—one that supports not only the prevention of cyberwar but its controlled, limited, and responsible conduct when required.
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